Emmys 2020: How accurate were the predictions?

I could talk a lot about how the virtual Emmys broadcast worked or didn’t work, but plenty of articles and podcasts have covered that.

My quick take: Overall it wasn’t terrible, but some of the COVID gags were overly drawn out.

Instead, I wanted to see how entertainment platforms predicted the winners. Were they right, wrong, widely inaccurate?

Inevitably there are always a few surprises every year, but let’s see if the entertainment junkies have the knowledge to accurately predict the winners in 2020, one of the most unpredictable in recent times.

For reference, I compared predictions from Entertainment Weekly, Gold Derby, Vanity Fair and Deadline, and not every site predicted all of the categories I’ve listed here.

Best Drama, “Succession”: 4/4

Everyone assumed the HBO drama would win.

Best Comedy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 2/4

The PopTV comedy swept the comedy categories for the first time ever, in only its second year of nominations.

Best Limited Series, “Watchmen”: 4/4

No one could stop the HBO miniseries, which had the most nominations going into the award show. They won 11 Emmys last night.

Best TV movie, “Bad Education”: 1/2

I guess it worked out that this film was acquired by HBO and released during quarantine.

Lead Actress in a Drama, Zendaya, “Euphoria”: 0/4

No one thought former Disney star Zendaya would win. She’s the youngest actress to win in the lead drama actress category.

Lead Actor in a Drama, Jeremy Strong, “Succession”: 1/4

Most predicted Strong’s co-star, Brian Cox, would win.

Supporting Actor in a Drama, Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”: 1/3

Vanity Fair correctly predicted the “Succession” actors would split the vote, since three of them were nominated in this category.

Supporting Actress in a Drama, Julia Garner, “Ozark”: 0/3

Entertainment Weekly didn’t pick, but the others all had Helena Bonham Carter set to win for her role in “The Crown.” Garner won last year as well.

Lead Actress in a Comedy, Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”: 4/4

Big-name star in a funny show in its last season? Easy choice.

Lead Actor in a Comedy, Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 2/4

The banter between Levy and his son Dan was adorable.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy, Daniel Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 2/3

Dan also won for writing and directing.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy, Annie Murphy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 0/3

Murphy was the last “Schitt’s Creek” winner before best comedy was announced, and she was shocked.

Lead Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie, Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much Is True”: 3/4

He played two roles!

Lead Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie, Regina King, “Watchmen”: 3/4

King now has won four Emmys for four different characters. She also ties the record for most acting Emmys won by a Black performer.

Supporting Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Watchmen”: 0/3

Deadline did say Abdul-Mateen II should win, but they thought Jim Parsons would win for his role in “Hollywood.”

Supporting Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie, Uzo Aduba, “Mrs. America”: 0/3

Abuba’s win was a shock considering two of her co-stars were also nominated in the same category.

So who was the best predictor? In these awards, Vanity Fair got the most right, getting 10 out of 16 correct.

But still, that’s barely over 50%. So what do these people know anyway?

Emmys 2020 nominations by the numbers

The biggest record the 2020 Emmys will pull off is having an awards show during a pandemic.

AKA without a red carpet. Most likely, anyway.

While it’ll be interesting to see how the Emmys pulls off a virtual awards show, you could probably make a game out of how many times masks and socially distancing are mentioned.

Take your bets now as I review some nomination numbers.

Streaming is king, as we know. Netflix has the most nominations, beating out usual-leader HBO. Each online platform saw increases in the number of nominations except for YouTube and Prime Video. And, two-thirds of Prime’s nominations are for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”

Even Quibi, the new short-form streaming platform, received Emmy nominations. And seriously, who’s watching that platform?

With non-cable networks (what I call the Farmer Five), three out of five have less nominations than 2019. Only PBS and ABC have more nominations in 2020 than in 2019.

Thirteen programs have more than 10 nominations, and seven of those 13 programs are on streaming networks.

Out of all the categories, 27 include multiple nominations from the same show. Three categories include three nominations from one show. Talk about stuffing the categories.

There are 47 first-time nominees. Out of those, seven have been nominated for an Oscar, and five have won at least once.

Since there are a fair number of newer shows in the mix this year, no actor or actress is going to break a record for most wins. But Sandra Oh (“Killing Eve”) and Steve Carell (“The Morning Show”) both have 11 nominations to date and zero wins. Both were on hit shows (“Grey’s Anatomy,” “The Office”) but have made their name in other ways, including these shows. Can either win this year?

We’ll find out Sept. 20 when the 72nd Emmys air on ABC.