Emmys 2020: How accurate were the predictions?

I could talk a lot about how the virtual Emmys broadcast worked or didn’t work, but plenty of articles and podcasts have covered that.

My quick take: Overall it wasn’t terrible, but some of the COVID gags were overly drawn out.

Instead, I wanted to see how entertainment platforms predicted the winners. Were they right, wrong, widely inaccurate?

Inevitably there are always a few surprises every year, but let’s see if the entertainment junkies have the knowledge to accurately predict the winners in 2020, one of the most unpredictable in recent times.

For reference, I compared predictions from Entertainment Weekly, Gold Derby, Vanity Fair and Deadline, and not every site predicted all of the categories I’ve listed here.

Best Drama, “Succession”: 4/4

Everyone assumed the HBO drama would win.

Best Comedy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 2/4

The PopTV comedy swept the comedy categories for the first time ever, in only its second year of nominations.

Best Limited Series, “Watchmen”: 4/4

No one could stop the HBO miniseries, which had the most nominations going into the award show. They won 11 Emmys last night.

Best TV movie, “Bad Education”: 1/2

I guess it worked out that this film was acquired by HBO and released during quarantine.

Lead Actress in a Drama, Zendaya, “Euphoria”: 0/4

No one thought former Disney star Zendaya would win. She’s the youngest actress to win in the lead drama actress category.

Lead Actor in a Drama, Jeremy Strong, “Succession”: 1/4

Most predicted Strong’s co-star, Brian Cox, would win.

Supporting Actor in a Drama, Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”: 1/3

Vanity Fair correctly predicted the “Succession” actors would split the vote, since three of them were nominated in this category.

Supporting Actress in a Drama, Julia Garner, “Ozark”: 0/3

Entertainment Weekly didn’t pick, but the others all had Helena Bonham Carter set to win for her role in “The Crown.” Garner won last year as well.

Lead Actress in a Comedy, Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”: 4/4

Big-name star in a funny show in its last season? Easy choice.

Lead Actor in a Comedy, Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 2/4

The banter between Levy and his son Dan was adorable.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy, Daniel Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 2/3

Dan also won for writing and directing.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy, Annie Murphy, “Schitt’s Creek”: 0/3

Murphy was the last “Schitt’s Creek” winner before best comedy was announced, and she was shocked.

Lead Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie, Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much Is True”: 3/4

He played two roles!

Lead Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie, Regina King, “Watchmen”: 3/4

King now has won four Emmys for four different characters. She also ties the record for most acting Emmys won by a Black performer.

Supporting Actor, Limited Series/TV Movie, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Watchmen”: 0/3

Deadline did say Abdul-Mateen II should win, but they thought Jim Parsons would win for his role in “Hollywood.”

Supporting Actress, Limited Series/TV Movie, Uzo Aduba, “Mrs. America”: 0/3

Abuba’s win was a shock considering two of her co-stars were also nominated in the same category.

So who was the best predictor? In these awards, Vanity Fair got the most right, getting 10 out of 16 correct.

But still, that’s barely over 50%. So what do these people know anyway?

Emmys 2020 nominations by the numbers

The biggest record the 2020 Emmys will pull off is having an awards show during a pandemic.

AKA without a red carpet. Most likely, anyway.

While it’ll be interesting to see how the Emmys pulls off a virtual awards show, you could probably make a game out of how many times masks and socially distancing are mentioned.

Take your bets now as I review some nomination numbers.

Streaming is king, as we know. Netflix has the most nominations, beating out usual-leader HBO. Each online platform saw increases in the number of nominations except for YouTube and Prime Video. And, two-thirds of Prime’s nominations are for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”

Even Quibi, the new short-form streaming platform, received Emmy nominations. And seriously, who’s watching that platform?

With non-cable networks (what I call the Farmer Five), three out of five have less nominations than 2019. Only PBS and ABC have more nominations in 2020 than in 2019.

Thirteen programs have more than 10 nominations, and seven of those 13 programs are on streaming networks.

Out of all the categories, 27 include multiple nominations from the same show. Three categories include three nominations from one show. Talk about stuffing the categories.

There are 47 first-time nominees. Out of those, seven have been nominated for an Oscar, and five have won at least once.

Since there are a fair number of newer shows in the mix this year, no actor or actress is going to break a record for most wins. But Sandra Oh (“Killing Eve”) and Steve Carell (“The Morning Show”) both have 11 nominations to date and zero wins. Both were on hit shows (“Grey’s Anatomy,” “The Office”) but have made their name in other ways, including these shows. Can either win this year?

We’ll find out Sept. 20 when the 72nd Emmys air on ABC.

Can the Oscars have repeat success without a host?

The Oscars are fast approaching thanks to a shortened awards season, and the show will be without a host for the second year.

Can it work?

They say lightning never strikes the same place twice. And I have a sinking feeling that’s the case here.

Let’s look at a few factors.

Do hosts help?

The 2019 Oscars were a mad rush to the finish line. After Kevin Hart was announced and unannounced as host, no one jumped at the opportunity to host the biggest awards show of each year.

Fortunately, it worked. Ratings rebounded. But was part of that just to see a potential fail?

The last time the Oscars went host-less before 2019 was 1989. The year of the Snow White/Rob Lowe musical number. Memorable, but it the worst way possible.

The second most-watched awards show is the Grammys, which went without a host for a few years. In 2012, LL Cool J started a five-year hosting streak, which mostly consisted of opening and closing the show and introducing a few musicians here and there. Alicia Keys hosts this year’s show for the second year in a row.

It never seemed necessary to have a Grammys host since it’s more about the performances than the awards (many awards aren’t televised anyway), but the show had viewer increases from 2015-2017 and had increased viewership last year, all years with a host.

And let’s not forget that the 2019 Emmys tried to go host-less since the Oscars did…and it bombed.

What does a host do?

It’s not that a host is needed, per se, but these awards shows need to flow. The Oscars had some success in 2019 for being almost 30 minutes shorter than 2018, a welcome reprieve, especially on an already late Sunday night telecast.

As long as you can keep a show running smoothly with some laughs or memorable moments, it works. It’s why Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are great hosts. Their dry humor and buddy banter delight audiences without alienating them.

And let’s be real, some hosts don’t work. Remember James Franco and Anne Hathaway? Her costume changes were more exciting than their bits. The Emmys Colin Jost and Michael Che? Snooze.

What about presenters and winners?

Over the last couple years, there seems to be more emphasis on who, besides the host, is part of the awards shows.

Presenters can make or break a moment. A bad bit can sour a show and make viewers turn off the program.

Maya Rudolph, for example, has had great moments.

And not so great moments.

Without a host, you have to hope the presenters entertain the audience. But their time is so quick that it has to be gold or be dust.

And then we have the nominees, which means a chance for colorful, political, motivational, sappy award speeches.

Deliver a good acceptance speech and you’re golden. Regina King? Flawless. Michelle Williams? Giving a voice where she thought appropriate.

There’s a fine line in these political times, but getting that sound bite is priceless. And what the Oscars hope to achieve.

With a higher than usual unpredictability in the Best Picture race balancing out what seem to locks for the acting categories, a chance for surprise seems minimal. And without the suspense of how will a host-less Oscars work, it seems unlikely people will care as much as last year.

2020 award nominations prove broadcast TV is dead. Here’s why.

One. That’s it.

Between the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, only one broadcast show, “This Is Us,” received a nomination.

Giving the streaming platform growth, this isn’t surprising. Broadcast nominations have been waning for years, but 2020 is proving to be a new low.

Is it worth broadcast shows even trying anymore? They’re fighting an uphill battle against cable and streaming.

Here are issues broadcast networks deal with:

Limits

Comedies have to be 22 min. Dramas are 44 min. Two-hour reality shows have 30 minutes of ads. And there’s no wiggle room. Remember when “Friends” had extended episodes? Not a thing anymore.

Watch any Netflix half-hour series and the times, and you’ll notice all sorts of fluctuation. One episode will run for 34 minutes, 23 minutes, 38 minutes, 26 minutes. The time is based on the story, not the ads.

There’s also the language limit. You can’t swear (unless you work with “The Good Place” forking model). Broadcast networks have to work with certain standards (thanks, FCC), when cable and streaming do not.

Revenue

Ads still run king in media, but subscriptions are providing more and more revenue.

Netflix has hiked its prices steadily over the last few years, and it doesn’t even have ads. Hulu has an ad-free service. I’m waiting for Disney+ to add more/any ads. Apple TV+ doesn’t have ads, but it also doesn’t have that much content yet.

Advertisers follow the money. One screw up and you’re done. In an age when one Tweet can cause an upheaval, for better or worse, it can be a domino effect.

Networks have to rely on ad dollars, which is why when the Roseanne debacle happened it was handled within hours, before more reputation damage could be done.

Creativity

Ryan Murphy and Shonda Rhimes, two network juggernauts, signed Netflix deals in the last year.

Why? Creativity. They can expand their work without any constraints. It’s no-holds-bar in the best kind of way.

Now, do I think Murphy’s “The Politician” is a great piece of TV? No. (In fact, I found all the characters irritating and plot way too overdone.) But, it’s different, and no one can deny that.

After 10+ years of dominating ABC and being the center of TGIT, Rhimes can leave the set plots behind and explore, even past the confines of “Scandal.”

Can you blame them?

Emmy Awards 2019: How ending shows fared during the boring telecast

Let’s be real, here, last night’s Emmys weren’t good.

The show took a risk with no host a la the 2019 Oscars. And while that worked at the Oscars, it bombed here.

I was so bored during the broadcast that I looked up the venue that my friend’s cover band is performing at this weekend, not that it really mattered, and bridesmaid dresses for my friend while texting her about the show’s lack of excitement.

Yes, there were upsets (hello, hi and hey to Phoebe Waller-Bridge). Yes, there were some funny moments (Bill Hader calling limited series canceled TV shows comes to mind). But overall, the cadence lagged and it wasn’t entertaining.

And seriously, who thought it was OK to make jokes about Roseanne and Bill Cosby? Yes, it was done in the vein of “Family Guy,” which isn’t PC per se, but still, too soon.

But since we said goodbye (assuming no reboots, which, let be real, is totally possible given our TV culture these days) to a few shows, let’s see how they fared.

GAMES OF THRONES

Number of nominations: 32

Number of wins: 12

As I predicted, the HBO drama won many creative Emmys, with only two during the telecast.

But it did win Best Drama, which I, again, stand by the idea that it’s more about the show as a whole, not the last season.

FLEABAG

Number of nominations: 11

Number of wins: 6

More than 50 percent of this Amazon show’s nominations pulled through for a win, which no one saw coming but many seemed happy for.

Waller-Bridge is still saying there will not be another season, but we’ll see with all the buzz since last night’s upsets.

VEEP

Number of nominations: 9

Number of wins: 0

This was the upset of the night. Everyone expected Julia Louis-Dreyfus to win since she has comedy prowess and personal triumph.

But “Fleabag” took the two seemingly guaranteed awards for “Veep.” It’s a bit sad for Louis-Dreyfus, but she has won other times (this is the first time she’s lost in this role).

SCHITT’S CREEK

Number of nominations: 4

Number of wins: 0

For this show, it was simply an honor to be nominated.

HOUSE OF CARDS

Number of nominations: 3

Number of wins: 0

As I mentioned before, most people forgot about this show.

And with all the scandal, it’s no surprise voters stayed away from the Netflix drama.

What did you think of the 2019 Emmys?

It’s the last hurrah for some at the 2019 Emmys

The Emmy nominations are here, and it’s time to say goodbye (officially) to so many shows.

Now the question is: Will the awards love continue with wins?

In a word: doubtful.

Let’s look at some of these shows and see what their chances could be.

Games of Thrones

Number of nominations: 32

The fantasy saga has concluded, while the books’ future is TBD.

But this final season was uneven at best, with critics and fans less than happy with the outcome. If it wins for Best Drama, it will be based on the series as a whole, not these last 6 episodes.

For its more technical award nominations, it’s more likely the show will win, especially considering how tough it was to shoot the long episodes.

The Emmys were nice and nominated many of the cast members. Unfortunately, the cast is too big for the number of acting categories.

With the supporting categories half-filled with GoT actors, it’ll split the vote and leave them all empty-handed. Congrats on the pity nominations.

Fleabag

Number of nominations: 11

This little hit snuck its way in, much to critics’ happiness.

With only two short seasons, it’s a quick watch, but the characters reel you in. (There are currently no plans for a third season.).

I don’t know if it has enough traction or presence to win best comedy, but an actress win for Phoebe Waller-Bridge would be the Emmys version of Olivia Coleman winning at the Oscars.

Veep

Number of nominations: 9

This is the rally cry comedy needs.

Veep wasn’t in Emmy contention last year since it was off the air while Julie Louis-Dreyfus took care of her health after being diagnosed with breast cancer.

But it came back strong for its final episodes, even if it didn’t get the buzz GoT did. (It also didn’t get the criticism GoT did, so there’s that.)

The lead actress category is a tough one, but with this well-recieved, multiple-Emmy-winning comedy ending, voters could be inclined to reward it one last time, especially for the beloved actress who conquered cancer.

Schitt’s Creek

Number of nominations: 4

It’s the little engine that could. Or this show is finally paddling with the creek’s current and with a paddle.

While this isn’t a Netflix show, Netflix certainly helped this Canadian comedy get some traction.

And now that the creator Dan Levy has announced the show will end with season six, it seemed to time to finally honor the quirky cult show.

Will it win? Probably not, but like they say, it’s an honor to be nominated.

House of Cards

Number of nominations: 3

Did anyone remember this show aired?

Crowded in controversy after Kevin Spacey’s dismissal, the show’s final season quietly premiered on Netflix.

And then no one cared.

Robin Wright could sneek in a win just for making it through the last season with grace, but that seems unlikely.

The 71st Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 22 on Fox.

2019 Golden Globes: Let’s enjoy the fun moments

It’s about time we made an awards show fun again.

Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh hosted the Golden Globes on Sunday, and it was an enjoyable, well-paced night.

Here are my top 3 reasons why the night made me smile.

Family thanks

How sweet was it to see all the thanks to families? And not just the typical thanks, but genuine moments.

Sandra Oh’s dad giving her a standing ovation when she won for “Killing Eve.” How cute was he? He clearly adores his daughter.

Darren Criss thanked his mom while reminding the audience how America is made up of immigrants…after he fan-boyed a bit.

And Mahershala Ali thanked all the women in his life. He knows who helped him grow up.

Those priceless reactions

Two of these belong to Rachel Brosnahan. When she won for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” for the second year in a row, the music started and she sweetly started trying to wrap it up while pointing out the music was playing.

Then, when she was leaving the stage, she almost went the wrong way, so when she was directing to exit the correct side, she awkwardly hopped off the stage.

The last funny reaction belongs to Gina Rodriguez of “Jane the Virgin.” When Dick Van Dyke came out on stageto help introduce a clip for “Mary Poppins Returns,” everyone gave a standing ovation, but the kid-like glow in Rodriguez’s eyes was priceless. Clearly she looks up to him.

Bringing a youthful exuberance

Jeff Bridges won the Cecil B. DeMille award this year, and he used his time to semi-tearfully thank his family, colleagues and friends.

But he ended by bringing about a point, as many do in speeches.

As he encouraged people to get out and do something in the world, he said “tag, you’re it” to the audience, pushing them to take that next step.

It made the moment not heavy-headed, but joyful.

What were your favorite moments of the Golden Globes?

Emmys 2018: 3 ways to improve the award show

If the most talked about thing that happened during the Emmys is a surprise on-camera proposal, you’ve done something wrong.

The 2018 Emmys aired Monday night, and no one seemed too interested.

Here are three ways the award show could improve:

stop airing on Monday nights

I’m sorry, but when has it become the norm to air a 3-hour award show on a Monday?

I used to work weird hours, and I watch The Bachelor (for the workout, only, I swear) so I understand that some people can watch a Monday night show without issues.

But many people work normal hours, so they don’t have time to devote to an award show on a Monday vs. a Sunday.

Plus sitting through a 3-hour show that’s not that interesting gets so old, so fast, especially on a weekday.

find good hosts

Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are the gold standard. Period. Who’s missing their hosting?

Michael Che and Colin Jost (the current Weekend Update hosts on “SNL”) were fine, but not memorable. No one is raving about their performance.

Hosting can make or break an award show. They typically aren’t around much, but they start and finish the show, so they need to keep viewer’s attention in an entertaining, unique way.

Or hey, do what the Grammys did for a while and don’t bother with a host. The attendees are wired to perform, so producers can figure something out.

No one needs an annoying reminder of a bad host.

Change the voting process

It makes perfect sense that the Emmy nominations are picked by people in the respective peer category (acting, directing, etc.). In your peer category, you can best understand the nuances within that division.

And it also makes perfect sense that nominees submit best work to be watched, and you have to confirm you’ve watched the content to submit a vote.

But if you’re voting for a winner, you can vote in any category, so how easy would it be for the same voter to pick the same show?

It seems too easy, given that the same few shows swept multiple categories Monday night.

If you have to nominate within your peer category, why shouldn’t you vote for winners in only your peer category?

Also, as I’ve suggested before, it may be time to divide awards by cable/streaming and broadcast. Too many restrictions restrict broadcast TV, and it’s causing a discrepancy.

Award shows 2018: Do network shows have a place anymore?

At the Golden Globes this year, only one out of 11 TV award winners was a network TV show representative (Sterling K. Brown won best actor in a drama series for NBC’s “This is Us.”)

Tomorrow’s SAG Awards only have five network TV show nominations among all the categories.

Do network shows even stand a chance anymore?

Now that Netflix consistently pulls out award-winning shows, with Amazon and Hulu reaching their stride in quality shows, is it time to separate out network shows from paid services shows?

The way people watch Netflix shows vs. a show on ABC, Fox, etc. is so different. You can binge a Netflix series in a weekend, while NBC draws out one season of “This is Us” from September to April or so (but maybe that’s so we can all take a sobbing break).

Plus, Hulu and those networks have advantages network shows don’t. On a network like CBS, you can’t swear, show nudity, depict graphic violence and other things. Rules must be followed. On online networks, the rules don’t apply. Anything can happen. And it usually does.

Another big difference is network shows play to commercial breaks. They place cliffhangers and plot points in just the right spot to keep you watching. On Netflix, it seems like most original drama episodes end on cliffhangers so you’ll continue watching. And Netflix doesn’t even ask the pesky question “Are you still watching?” when it’s an original show. It can play out like one long, continuous story, and viewers soak it right up.

Network shows just can’t play the same game online networks can. So is it fair to pit them against each other in award categories?

Plenty of quality shows still exist on ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox and the CW. Should they be recognized in a different way? Or does that just further depict the difference in the TV formats?

It may be time to revisit how award shows handle TV shows.

Emmys 2017: 3 disappointments from the TV awards show

The 2017 Emmys have one leg up on the 2017 Oscars: There was no mixup.

But is it just me, or are these starting to get boring?

Maybe there are just too many shows to keep up with nowadays, but I felt much less invested in the winners this year.

Here are my 3 biggest gripes from the show:

Have award shows gotten too political lately?

It’s not news to say we live in a tumultuous political climate. Tensions have been running high for about two years, and it’s not ending anytime soon.

The Emmys, like other award shows this year, took time to make sly (or not-so-sly) jabs at the current political environment. Some were funny, some were poignant…but overall, I’m done.

Award shows are supposed to be a time of celebration. Is it really necessary to bring down the great spirits with divisive talking points?

It’s not that we need to be politically correct all the time, but I don’t believe award shows are the place for that commentary.

If it’s part of someone’s acceptance speech, fine. You can’t control that. But for a bit, let’s leave out the scripted bits.

Stop dividing awards into unique categories

While I appreciate that this year the show wasn’t one hour of comedy, one hour of limited series and one hour of drama, this format wasn’t much better.

They announced by award types by category (lead actress/actor in 3 categories, director/show in all categories, etc.). It felt so stale.

Mix it up. I hate how shows leave the top awards for the end of night just to keep up ratings. But it’s overdone and makes the show seem routine.

Where was Stephen Colbert?

Colbert hosted this year, right?

Admittedly I wasn’t paying attention the whole time, but I felt like I saw Jermaine Fowler from CBS’ “Superior Donuts” more.

Fowler was the show’s “announcer,” giving anecdotes and fun facts throughout the 3-hour show. But he doesn’t have the clout that Colbert does, so it was confusing to see him show much.

I’m not the biggest fan of Colbert, but I hope Fowler got paid as much. Doubtful.

I hope next year’s show is better.