While 2020 was anything but predictable, the Oscars might just be.
Whether it’s because of the pandemic and lack of new releases or just a consensus, most of the big races for this year’s Oscars ceremony seem pretty set.
Here’s a look at some of the categories, their nominees and who will most likely win based on this season’s Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations and winners:
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) – four nominations
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) – three wins, four nominations
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) – one win, four nominations
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)- four nominations
Steven Yeun (“Minari”) – two nominations
Prediction: While Richard Lawson of the “Little Gold Men” podcast predicted Hopkins would win over a year ago, it’s Boseman’s posthumous Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) – three nominations
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) – four wins
Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami…”) – four nominations
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) – two nominations
Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) – The Oscars is his only nomination for the role.
Prediction: Unless Stanfield splits the vote, it’s Kaluuya’s Oscar.
Best Actress
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) – one win, three nominations
Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) – one win, two nominations
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) – four nominations
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) – one win, four nominations
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) – one win, three nominations
Prediction: This one is less predictable, since all but one nominee already won once this season. McDormand has already won two Oscars, but I predict she’ll win a third.
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”) – won once*, four nominations
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) – three nominations
Olivia Colman (“The Father”) – three nominations
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)– two nominations
Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) – two wins, three nominations
*Bakalova was nominated in best actress at the Golden Globes instead of supporting.
Prediction: Youn and Bakalova are the only two in this category who have won this season. Since comedy is never favored at the Oscars, I’m predicting Youn will win.
Best Animated Film
“Onward” – two nominations
“Over the Moon” – one nomination
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” – one nomination
“Soul” – two wins
“Wolfwalkers” – two nominations
Prediction: It’s tough to beat Pixar, and “Soul” has won twice already. “Soul” will win.
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”) – one nomination
David Fincher (“Mank”) – two nominations
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”) – two nominations
Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) – three wins
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) – two nominations
Prediction: Zhao is the only director who’s won this season. Plus it’ll be a nice narrative to have a woman win.
Best Picture
Note: These nominations include best acting ensemble, best foreign and best British film nominations.
“The Father” – three nominations
“Judas and the Black Messiah” – one nomination
“Mank” – two nominations
“Minari” – two wins, six nominations
“Nomadland” – three wins
“Promising Young Woman” – one win, four nominations
“Sound of Metal” – one nomination
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” – two wins, five nominations
Prediction: It’s between “Nomadland” and “Minari,” but I’d guess “Nomadland” will win.
Will I be right? We’ll see will the Oscars air April 25 on ABC.